大俠天下行

【大俠行天下日記 / 全球經濟前景嚴峻/美南新闻集团董事长 李蔚华】


社評 0611 全球經濟前景嚴峻

世界銀行在一項最新的報告中有一項非常嚴峻的警告, 由于俄烏戰事仍在持續, 全球供應鏈受阻 ,物價能源飛漲 ,中國對新冠疫情之相關封鎖這一連衝擊,將使今後全球經濟之衰退難予避免。

在這項預測報告中指出, 除了諸如沙烏地等出產石油之國家, 因油價高漲帶來暴利之外 ,其他諸如美國及歐洲國家之経濟增長率將放緩至百分之二點五,而中國大陸將從二O二一年之百分之八點一降至百分之四點三, 對於其他貧窮國家而言, 情況會更糟 ,尤其是利率上升加上債務負擔加重 ,前程十分艰難是預料之中。

我們不願看到就如一九七 o年代當不斷上漲之油價,加上高利率而使経済呈現癱瘓將會引發許多國家之金融危機。

拜登總統即將出訪沙鳥地及中東 ,主要在尋找對石油危機之解決方案 ,今天在美國國內平均油價已經突破五元美金 ,通物膨脹率已高達百分之八點六, 雖然失業率低於百分之三點五,但是有百分之七十五的美國人已經受不了, 如果這種情況無法改變 ,中期選舉將拱手送給共和黨了。

我們奉勸拜登總統必須要把多半之注意力放在內政上, 首先要解決民生油價問題必須安內才可攘外 ,否則政權將無法保住了。

A Recession Will Be Hard To Avoid

A recent World Bank report has warned that the war in Ukraine, a broken worldwide supply chain, the lockdown in China along with skyrocketing food and fuel prices will create huge problems for many countries and a recession will be hard to avoid.

The World Bank also said that the world’s growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2021, with the exception of countries like Saudi Arabia which has benefited from higher oil prices. But there are barely any areas that have bright spots, especially China where their growth rate has dropped from 8.1 percent to 4.3 percent.

We don’t want to see a case of higher interest rates and rising oil prices like what  happened in the 1970’s. This would surely trigger a financial crisis in the world.

President Biden is planning to visit Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries mainly to look for additional oil supplies and a solution to the oil crisis. Today the average fuel price at the pump is over $5 per gallon. The inflation rate has now reached 8.6 percent. Although the unemployment rate is less than 3.5 percent, still 75 percent of Americans just can’t hold it together anymore.

We want to urge President Biden to focus most of his attention on the country’s internal affairs to solve the livelihood problems of our people.

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