“There are three major channels to deliver political signals to Taipei,” explained Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People’s Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan. “They are spokespersons of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, Taiwan Affairs Office, and the Defense Ministry. It is relatively unusual to direct a PLA spokesman to deliver such political signals.”
Dr. Chang suggests that the PLA’s statement appears to be a new psychological operation aimed at the US and Taiwan. The military expert has drawn attention to the fact that “for any sophisticated and well organized military maneuvers, it is always necessary to have proper prior preparation.” As such, he suggested that the exercises and the US visit are not causally linked.
“The possibility for the People’s Liberation Army to conduct an improvised military exercise simply reacting to any United States political figure visiting Taiwan is extremely low,” the professor argued. “The visit of the US Senator Rick Scott to Taiwan, the premeditated military [exercises] in airspace and waters around Taiwan, and the PLA routine press conference just happened on the same day. And a smart PLA spokesman grabbed the chance to exercise his psychological warfare skill and achieve the perception of warfare effects.”
“There are many political commentators and military analysts expecting the worst-case scenario will emerge sooner or later,” said Dr. Chang, referring to the possibility of a US-China military standoff over Taiwan. “However, as long as all parties involved in such a circumstance with high uncertainties and tensions are sensible enough, the hope for peaceful resolution of the cross-strait animosities will not totally diminish though many observers will think otherwise.”
The professor believes that as for now, the possibility of any significant Sino-US conflict is quite unlikely. While the differences between Washington and Beijing do exist, “the mutual communication channel and crisis prevention mechanism is also functional,” according to the expert.
Dr. Chang went on to claim that the Biden administration’s provocative moves with regard to Taiwan could be explained by simmering divisions within the White House.
“Many indications of internal conflicts emerged within his national security and foreign policy team members,” he said. “Some key members still keep strong ambition to exercise the salami-slicing tactics on [the] Taiwan issue for acquiring leverage towards Beijing. On the other hand, there are other members who are more willing to seek the possibility for mutual cooperation with their counterparts in Beijing and they will exercise a different set of policies towards Taipei and Beijing accordingly.”
As a result, the US administration’s strategy remains inconsistent, with Biden’s government being “an orchestra with no competent conductor to coordinate his foreign and security policies.”
However, Washington’s unbalanced approach comes at the expense of the Taiwanese inhabitants. The present administration’s negligence to the peace and stability of the region stems from the fact that “the criteria of supporting Taiwan is to serve the United States national interests, not Taiwan’s welfare,” according to the professor.
“Of course, in some cases, there are mutually beneficial solutions and arrangements in US-Taiwan relations,” he said. “Nonetheless, US interests are always the concern with higher priority for the leaders in Washington.”
> “解放军进行临时军事演习的可能性极低,只是对任何访问台湾的美国政治人物做出反应,”教授说。 “美国参议员里克·斯科特访台、有预谋的在台湾周边领空和海域的军事演习,以及解放军例行记者会,都在同一天发生,而聪明的解放军发言人则抓住机会进行心理战技巧,达到对战争效果的感知。”“有许多政治评论员和军事分析家预计,最坏的情况迟早会出现,”张博士指的是美中在台湾问题上发生军事对峙的可能性。 “不过,只要在这种充满不确定性和紧张局势的情况下,各方都足够理智,和平解决两岸仇恨的希望不会完全消失,尽管许多观察家会不这么认为。”


“他的国家安全和外交政策团队成员中出现了许多内部冲突的迹象,”他说。 “一些关键成员仍然有强烈的野心,在台湾问题上采取切香肠的策略,以获取对北京的影响力。另一方面,其他成员更愿意寻求与同行合作的可能性。在北京,他们将对台北和北京采取不同的政策。”


“当然,在某些情况下,美台关系存在互利的解决方案和安排,”他说。 “尽管如此,美国的利益始终是华盛顿领导人更优先关注的问题。”

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